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Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina

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dc.creator Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
dc.date 2003
dc.date.accessioned 2022-03-17T15:42:50Z
dc.date.available 2022-03-17T15:42:50Z
dc.identifier http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=36490102
dc.identifier.uri http://biblioteca-repositorio.clacso.edu.ar/handle/CLACSO/43930
dc.description Many experts, policymakers, and journalists had been enthusiastically advising Argentina to abandon the currency board arrangement that had been in place since 1991, on the grounds that it was choking its economy. They were disappointed when Argentina's attempt to devalue "just a little" ended up in a collapse of its currency and real GDP. We argue that the reason why the devaluation "drug" didn't cure Argentina is because the doctors who recommended it overlooked that the perfect information conditions required for the medication to work properly were not met by that country. We propose an alternative "diagnosis," according to which the attempt to devalue "just a little" ends up in higher depreciation and inflation rates than originally intended. This prediction, consistent with the evidence for Argentina, suggests that non-state contingent ("rigid",) monetary regimes, such as a currency board or outright dollarization, might dominate in a welfare sense, by virtue of a transparency-inducing feature, state-contingent ("flexible") policies in countries like Argentina, where economic agents are unable to satisfactorily monitor the policymakers' actions, as well as the underlying decision process.
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language en
dc.publisher Universidad Central de Venezuela
dc.relation http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=364
dc.rights Revista Venezolana de Análisis de Coyuntura
dc.source Revista Venezolana de Análisis de Coyuntura (Venezuela) Num.1 Vol.IX
dc.subject Economía y Finanzas
dc.subject Argentina
dc.subject devaluation
dc.subject currency boards
dc.subject optimal monetary policy
dc.subject time inconsistency
dc.title Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
dc.type artículo científico


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