A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex

Víctor Manuel  García-Guerrero

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dc.creator	Víctor Manuel García-Guerrero
dc.date	2016
dc.date.accessioned	2022-03-22T16:15:27Z
dc.date.available	2022-03-22T16:15:27Z
dc.identifier	http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11245987005
dc.identifier.uri	http://biblioteca-repositorio.clacso.edu.ar/handle/CLACSO/83759
dc.description	In this paper a method to model and forecast international immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex is proposed. This method is based on Lees 1993 model, which is an extension of the well-known Lee-Carter model (Lee & Carter, 1992). The method proposed allows forecasting migration consistently with the whole population dynamic in the sense that it incorporates sustainable migration levels. This sustainability is incorporated through a logistic transformation of total migration, and it allows constraining the migrations fluctuation and thus avoiding negative values in a total population forecast. The method is applied to recent estimates of Mexican immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex from 1960 to 2010 made by the Mexican Society of Demography (SOMEDE, 2011). The predictive power of the model is tested forecasting the period 1991 to 2010 and comparing the results with estimates for such period.
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
dc.relation	http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112
dc.rights	Papeles de Población
dc.source	Papeles de Población (México) Num.88 Vol.22
dc.subject	Demografía
dc.subject	Forecasting international migration
dc.subject	simulation
dc.subject	time series
dc.subject	international net migration
dc.subject	international immigration
dc.subject	international emigration
dc.subject	demographic forecasting
dc.subject	Mexican migration
dc.title	A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex
dc.type	artículo científico